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Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.