🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.