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At first, Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe repercussions" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace talks, Trump finally enacted major penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously affected the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that essential autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

While freezing in status the currently separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in over a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital should he later choose to restart the war.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a action that would enable future hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding elections in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has breached comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community believe Putin this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the initiative warns of a "strong unified defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include vague to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from rebuilding his diminished troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Response

Another parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not