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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth British prime minister to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its sixth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”